From JMcDona@fcref.org
Date: Mon, 23 Sep 1996 09:32:37 -0400
From: Jamie McDonald 
To: "'moogoonghwa@UCSD.EDU'" ,
    'Bill Harms' 
Subject: RE: Reactions

>----------
>From: 	Bill Harms[SMTP:wharms@soback.kornet.nm.kr]
>Sent: 	domingo 22 de septiembre de 1996 6:20
>To: 	moogoonghwa@UCSD.EDU
>Subject: 	Reactions
>
>If there is, I would like to hear other's views and what reaction the
>US and
>the South should take in light of Pyongyang's alleged provocations.
>Specifically, what about food aid, the heavy oil shipments under the
>agreed
>framework, and the four-way talks proposal? 

I don't think any reaction at all -- aside from an "I feel your pain"
message from President Clinton -- can be expected from the U.S. under
the current administration.  Clinton has a notoriously weak foreign
policy.  Considering his recent attempts to boost his popularity by
bombing and sending troops into the Middle East, any significantly
"forceful" acts -- like moving an aircraft carrier group or other forces
Korea-ward -- will make it look like he is war-mongering.  

I expect that the more feasible options -- cutting off the PDRK heavy
oil supply, ending food shipments -- won't happen because recent US
attention has focused on the growing number of nuclear-weapons-capable
countries (Clinton has taken a lot of heat for ignoring CIA reports of
the number of countries on the verge of having nuclear weapons) and the
current administration will definitely NOT want to provide the PDRK with
an excuse to build a heavy-water reactor instead of the light-water
reactors KEDO is offering.  Ending the food shipments is something that
Clinton simply will not do -- it is a tough move that he would worry
would deprive poorer North Koreans of food even if the reality is that
the food all goes to the N. Korean military.

And Clinton has not yet seen a "peace" talk he didn't like.  The
four-way talks are in no danger of a U.S. pull-out.

Things will change under a Bob Dole presidency, however.  Though I'm not
a huge fan of Dole either, I think the ROK would benefit under his
foreign policies.   I will leave it at that unless others are interested
in discussing it.

Jamie McDonald
>





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